Read more of Kelpie Wilson's columns

   
    By Kelpie Wilson
    t r u t h o u t | Environment Editor

    Saturday 17 May 2008

    In 1956, M. King Hubbert, a petroleum geologist with Shell Oil, presented a paper to the American Petroleum Institute that predicted US oil production would peak in the early 1970s and then follow a declining curve, now known as Hubbert's curve. But Hubbert almost didn't get to give his paper. He got a call from his bosses at Shell, who asked him to "tone it down." His reply was that there was nothing to tone down. It was just straightforward analysis. He presented the paper, unedited. You can read the whole story here.

    Since that time, the oil industry and its political supporters have done everything they can to tone down the message that oil is a finite resource and that we will run out of it some day. Why would they do that? To further the short-sighted, short-term pursuit of profit. In 2004, Shell finally got caught in a lie about the size of its oil reserves. The company had inflated the stated size of its oil reserves to keep stock share prices high because who wants to invest in a company - or an industry - that is going the way of the dinosaurs?

    Since 1956, the world economy has proceeded under a sort of oil company spell that has woven the illusion all around us that oil depletion is so far into the future that we don't need to worry about it. That belief was essential to support the aim of an endlessly growing economy.

    There have been a few hitches in that strategy. In 1972, just as oil production in the United States reached its all-time peak, a group of computer modelers from MIT released a study called "The Limits to Growth." They predicted a steep decline in natural resources of all kinds. Because reserve numbers for many minerals, including oil, were not accurately known back then, they looked at different scenarios. Some showed us running out of oil before 2000 and some showed the peak occurring toward the middle of the 21st century.

    The pro-growth faction reacted quickly and scathingly to the idea that there could be limits to growth. The MIT scientists were treated like Cassandras in academia and in the press.

   
    By Deborah Zabarenko
    Reuters

    Monday 21 April 2008

    Washington - Most people believe oil is running out and governments need to find another fuel, but Americans are alone in thinking their leaders are out of touch with reality on this issue, an international poll said on Sunday.

    On average, 70 percent of respondents in 15 countries and the Palestinian territories said they thought oil supplies had peaked. Only 22 percent of the nearly 15,000 respondents in nations ranging from China to Mexico believed enough new oil would be found to keep it a primary fuel source.

    "What's most striking is there's such a widespread consensus around the world that oil is running out and governments need to make a real effort to find new sources of energy," said Steven Kull, director of WorldPublicOpinion.org, a global research organization that conducted the poll.

    Concerns over climate change, which is spurred by emissions from fossil fuels including oil, also were a factor among respondents, Kull said.

    The current tightening of the oil market is not temporary but will continue and the price of oil will rise substantially, most respondents said.

    "They think it's just going to keep going higher and a fundamental adaptation is necessary," Kull said in a telephone interview.

    
    By John Colson
    Post Independent

    Saturday 29 March 2008

Clock ticking on the world's supply.

    Aspen - Experts might disagree about exactly when the world will run out of the oil that is easily found and extracted, but most agree that it will happen at some point and that humanity should be preparing for that day.

    That was one of the messages to come out of the second full day of The Aspen Institute and National Geographic Magazine Aspen Environment Forum, at a panel discussion featuring energy-efficiency guru Amory Lovins, green technology specialist Randy Udall, and Marvin Odum, executive vice-president of Shell Oil. The forum concludes today.

    The three took part in a wide-ranging discussion that centered around the concept that "peak oil" is approaching rapidly, moderated by Jack Riggs of The Aspen Institute.

    What is peak oil?

    Udall, former head of the Community Office for Resource Efficiency in Aspen and Carbondale, noted that the world is cranking out about 80 million tons of carbon dioxide every 24 hours, a statistic that has focused the world's attention on global warming from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.

    "We're focused on the smoke," Udall said of the issue. "Let's think about the fire."

    He said that in order to produce that much carbon dioxide, the world must be burning approximately 30 million tons of oil, coal and natural gas per day, which he said translates into roughly 140 pounds per week, per person, globally.