Tropical
forests may dry out and become vulnerable to devastating wildfires as
global warming accelerates over the coming decades, a senior scientist
has warned.
Soaring greenhouse gas emissions, driven by a surge in coal
use in countries such as China and India, are threatening temperature
rises that will turn damp and humid forests into parched tinderboxes,
said Dr Chris Field, co-chair of the UN's Nobel prize-winning
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Higher temperatures could see wildfires raging through the
tropics and a large scale melting of the Arctic tundra, releasing
billions of tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere that will accelerate
warming even further, he said.
Field, director of global ecology at the Carnegie
Institute, told the American Association for the Advancement of Science
meeting in Chicago at the weekend that the IPCC's last report on
climate change in 2007 had substantially underestimated the severity of
global warming over the rest of the century.
The report concluded that the Earth's temperature is likely
to rise between 1.1C and 6.4C by 2100, depending on future global
carbon emissions. "We now have data showing that from 2000 to 2007,
greenhouse gas emissions increased far more rapidly than we expected,
primarily because developing countries, like China and India, saw a
huge upsurge in electric power generation, almost all of it based on
coal," Field said. The next report, which Field will oversee, is due in
2014 and will now include future scenarios where global warming is far
more serious than previous reports have suggested, he said.
Field said that if the tropics became dry enough for fires
to break out, tropical forests would pass a "tipping point" from
absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to releasing it.