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Tuesday 12 August 2008
by: Cornelia Dean, The New York Times
Last
year, a private company proposed "fertilizing" parts of the ocean with
iron, in hopes of encouraging carbon-absorbing blooms of plankton.
Meanwhile, researchers elsewhere are talking about injecting chemicals
into the atmosphere, launching sun-reflecting mirrors into stationary
orbit above the earth or taking other steps to reset the thermostat of
a warming planet.
This technology might be useful, even life-saving. But it
would inevitably produce environmental effects impossible to predict
and impossible to undo. So a growing number of experts say it is time
for broad discussion of how and by whom it should be used, or if it
should be tried at all.
Similar questions are being raised about nanotechnology,
robotics and other powerful emerging technologies. There are even those
who suggest humanity should collectively decide to turn away from some
new technologies as inherently dangerous.
"The complexity of newly engineered systems coupled with
their potential impact on lives, the environment, etc., raise a set of
ethical issues that engineers had not been thinking about," said
William A. Wulf, a computer scientist who until last year headed the
National Academy of Engineering. As one of his official last acts, he
established the Center for Engineering, Ethics, and Society there.
Rachelle Hollander, a philosopher who directs the center,
said the new technologies were so powerful that "our saving grace, our
inability to affect things at a planetary level, is being lost to us,"
as human-induced climate change is demonstrating.
Engineers, scientists, philosophers, ethicists and lawyers
are taking up the issue in scholarly journals, online discussions and
conferences in the United States and abroad. "It's a hot topic," said
Ronald C. Arkin, a computer scientist at Georgia Tech who advises the
Army on robot weapons. "We need at least to think about what we are
doing while we are doing it, to be aware of the consequences of our
research."
So far, though, most scholarly conversation about these
issues has been "piecemeal," said Andrew Maynard, chief science adviser
for the Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies at the Woodrow Wilson
Center in Washington. "It leaves the door open for people to do
something that is going to cause long-term problems."
That's what some environmentalists said they feared when
Planktos, a California-based concern, announced it would embark on a
private effort to fertilize part of the South Atlantic with iron, in
hopes of producing carbon-absorbing plankton blooms that the company
could market as carbon offsets. Countries bound by the London
Convention, an international treaty governing dumping at sea, issued a
"statement of concern" about the work and a United Nations group called
for a moratorium, but it is not clear what would have happened had
Planktos not abandoned the effort for lack of money.
"There is no one to say 'thou shalt not,'" said Jane
Lubchenco, an environmental scientist at Oregon State University and a
former president of the American Association for the Advancement of
Science.
When scientists and engineers discuss geoengineering, it is
obvious they are talking about technologies with the potential to
change the planet. But the issue of engineering ethics applies as well
to technologies whose planet-altering potential may not emerge until it
is too late.
Dr. Arkin said robotics researchers should consider not
just how to make robots more capable, but also who must bear
responsibility for their actions and how much human operators should
remain "in the loop," particularly with machines to aid soldiers on the
battlefield or the disabled in their homes.
But he added that progress in robotics was so "insidious"
that people might not realize they had ventured into ethically
challenging territory until too late.
Ethical and philosophical issues have long occupied
biotechnology, where institutional review boards commonly rule on
proposed experiments and advisory committees must approve the use of
gene-splicing and related techniques. When the federal government
initiated its effort to decipher the human genome, a percentage of the
budget went to consideration of ethics issues like genetic
discrimination.
But such questions are relatively new for scientists and
engineers in other fields. Some are calling for the same kind of
discussion that microbiologists organized in 1975 when the immense
power of their emerging knowledge of gene-splicing or recombinant DNA
began to dawn on them. The meeting, at the Asilomar conference center
in California, gave rise to an ethical framework that still prevails in
biotechnology.
"Something like Asilomar might be very important," said
Andrew Light, director of the Center for Global Ethics at George Mason
University, one of the organizers of a conference in Charlotte, N.C.,
in April on the ethics of emerging technologies. "The question now is
how best to begin that discussion among the scientists, to encourage
them to do something like this, then figure out what would be the right
mechanism, who would fund it, what form would recommendations take, all
those details."
But an engineering Asilomar might be hard to bring off. "So
many people have their nose to the bench," Dr. Arkin said,
"historically a pitfall of many scientists." Anyway, said Paul
Thompson, a philosopher at Michigan State and former secretary of the
International Society for Environmental Ethics, many scientists were
trained to limit themselves to questions answerable in the real world,
in the belief that "scientists and engineers should not be involved in
these kinds of ethical questions."
And researchers working in geoengineering say they worry
that if people realize there are possible technical fixes for global
warming, they will feel less urgency about reducing greenhouse gas
emissions. "Even beginning the discussion, putting geoengineering on
the table and beginning the scientific work could in itself make us
less concerned about all the things that we need to start doing now,"
Dr. Light said. On the other hand, some climate scientists argue that
if people realized such drastic measures were on the horizon, they
would be frightened enough to reduce their collective carbon footprint.
Still others say that, given the threat global warming poses to the
planet, it would be unethical not to embark on the work needed to
engineer possible remedies - and to let policy makers know of its
potential.
But when to begin this kind of discussion? "It's a really
hard question," Dr. Thompson said. "I don't think anyone has an answer
to it."
Many scientists don't like talking about their research
before it has taken shape, for fear of losing control over it,
according to David Goldston, former chief of staff at the House Science
Committee and a columnist for the journal Nature. This mind-set is
"generally healthy," he wrote in a recent column, but it is "maladapted
for situations that call for focused research to resolve societal
issues that need to be faced with some urgency."
And then there is the longstanding scientific fear that if
they engage with the public for any reason, their work will be
misunderstood or portrayed in inaccurate or sensationalized terms.
Francis S. Collins, who is stepping down as head of the
government human genome project, said he had often heard researchers
say "it's better if people don't know about it." But he said he was
proud that the National Human Genome Research Institute had from the
beginning devoted substantial financing to research on privacy,
discrimination and other ethical issues raised by progress in genetics.
If scientific research has serious potential implications in the real
world, "the sooner there is an opportunity for public discussion the
better," he said in a recent interview.
In part, that is because some emerging technologies will
require political adjustments. For example, if the planet came to
depend on chemicals in space or orbiting mirrors or regular oceanic
infusions of iron, system failure could mean catastrophic - and
immediate - climate change. But maintaining the systems requires a
political establishment with guaranteed indefinite stability.
As Dr. Collins put it, the political process these days is
"not well designed to handle issues that are not already in a crisis."
Or as Mr. Goldston put it, "with no grand debate over first principles
and no accusations of acting in bad faith, nanotechnology has received
only fitful attention."
Meanwhile, there is growing recognition that climate
engineering, nanotechnology and other emerging technologies are full of
"unknown unknowns," factors that will not become obvious until they are
put into widespread use at a scale impossible to turn back, as
happened, in a sense, with the atomic bomb. At its first test, some of
its developers worried - needlessly - that the blast might set the
atmosphere on fire. They did not anticipate the bombs would generate
electromagnetic pulses intense enough to paralyze electrical systems
across a continent.
Bill Joy, a founder of Sun Microsystems, cited the bomb in
a famous 2000 article in the magazine Wired on the dangers of robots in
which he argued that some technologies were so dangerous they should be
"relinquished." He said it was common for scientists and engineers to
fail "to understand the consequences of our inventions while we are in
the rapture of discovery" and, as a result, he said, "we have yet to
come to terms with the fact that the most compelling 21st-century
technologies - robotics, genetic engineering and nanotechnology - pose
a different threat than the technologies that have come before. They
are so powerful they can spawn whole new classes of accidents and
abuses."
He called it "knowledge-enabled mass destruction."
But in an essay in the journal Nature last year, Mary
Warnock, a philosopher who led a committee formed to advise the British
government after the world's first test-tube baby was born there in
1978, said when people fear "dedicated scientists and doctors may
pursue research that some members of society find repugnant" the answer
is not to allow ignorance and fear to dictate which technologies are
allowed to go forward, but rather to educate people "to have a broad
understanding of science and an appreciation of its potential for
good."
In another Nature essay, Sheila Jasanoff, a professor of
science and technology studies at the Kennedy School of Government at
Harvard, said a first step was for scientists and engineers to realize
that in complex issues, "uncertainty, ignorance and indeterminacy are
always present."
In what she described as "a call for humility," she urged
researchers to cultivate and teach "modes of knowing that are often
pushed aside in expanding scientific understanding and technological
capacity" including history, moral philosophy, political theory and
social studies of science - what people value and why they value it.
Dr. Hollander said the new ethics center would take up
issues like these. "Do we recognize when we might be putting ourselves
on a negative technological treadmill by moving in one direction rather
than another?" she said. "There are social questions we should be
paying attention to, that we should see as important.
"I mean we as citizens, and that includes people in the academy and engineers. It includes everybody."
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